Anthropogenic activities change population heat exposure much more than natural factors and land use change: An analysis of 2020-2100 under SSP-RCP scenarios in Chinese cities
文献类型： 外文期刊
作者： He, Tong 1 ; Wang, Nan 1 ; Tong, Yindong 1 ; Wu, Feng 2 ; Xu, Xinliang 3 ; Liu, Luo 4 ; Chen, Jiayue 1 ; Lu, Yingshuang 1 ; Sun, Zongyao 5 ; Han, Dongrui 6 ; Qiao, Zhi 1 ;
作者机构： 1.Tianjin Univ, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Tianjin 300350, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
4.South China Agr Univ, Guangdong Prov Key Lab Land Use & Consolidat, Guangzhou 510642, Peoples R China
5.Tianjin Univ, Sch Architecture, Tianjin 300272, Peoples R China
6.Shandong Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agr Informat & Econ, Jinan 250100, Peoples R China
关键词： Urban heat environment change; Land use; cover change; Population heat exposure; Extreme heat; SSP-RCP scenarios; Global climate change
期刊名称：SUSTAINABLE CITIES AND SOCIETY （ 影响因子：11.7； 五年影响因子：10.6 ）
ISSN： 2210-6707
年卷期： 2023 年 96 卷
页码：
收录情况： SCI
摘要： Global climate change, especially warming, has significant implications for human health. There are currently research gaps in the attribution of urban heat environment (UHE) changes and the exploration of heat exposure based on land use types. This study proposed a UHE change attribution algorithm based on land use types, separated contributions of natural factors (NAT), land use change (LUC), and other anthropogenic activities (OANT) in Chinese cities under Shared socioeconomic pathway-Representative concentration pathway (SSPRCP) scenarios over different periods in the 21st century, further evaluated population heat exposure changes of the same three factors during extreme heat (i.e., maximum daily temperatures exceeding 35 degrees C). The average UHE changes were projected to be positive over each future period. Total OANT contribution would be slightly higher than that of NAT in the same period and scenario, while in most cases, contribution intensity of NAT would be greater than that of OANT. Total contribution and intensity of LUC would remain low. Population heat exposure changes of OANT would be 15.46 and 15.21 times higher than those of NAT and LUC, respectively. The outcomes of this study will help guide adaptation and mitigation of UHE changes under future scenarios and reduce negative impacts on human health.
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