Weakening density dependence from climate change and agricultural intensification triggers pest outbreaks: a 37-year observation of cotton bollworms
文献类型： 外文期刊
作者： Ouyang, Fang 1 ; Hui, Cang 2 ; Ge, Saiying 3 ; Men, Xin-Yuan 4 ; Zhao, Zi-Hua 5 ; Shi, Pei-Jian 6 ; Zhang, Yong-Sheng; 1 ;
作者机构： 1.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Integrated Management Pest & Rodent, Inst Zool, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Univ Stellenbosch, Ctr Invas Biol, Dept Bot & Zool, ZA-7602 Stellenbosch, South Africa
3.Ohio State Univ, Fisher Coll Business, Columbus, OH 43210 USA
4.Shandong Acad Agr Sci, Inst Plant Protect, Jinan 250100, Peoples R China
5.China Agr Univ, Dept Entomol, Beijing 100193, Peoples R China
6.Nanjing Forestry Univ, Inst Bamboo, Nanjing 210037, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
7.Hunan Agr Univ, Coll Plant Protect, Changsha 410128, Hunan, Peoples R China
8.Univ Calif Riverside, Ecol Complex & Modeling Lab, Dept Bot & Plant Sci, Riverside, CA 92521 USA
关键词： Climate change;density dependence;human activity;population dynamic;time series;variation partitioning
期刊名称：ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION （ 影响因子：2.912； 五年影响因子：3.271 ）
ISSN： 2045-7758
年卷期： 2014 年 4 卷 17 期
页码：
收录情况： SCI
摘要： Understanding drivers of population fluctuation, especially for agricultural pests, is central to the provision of agro-ecosystem services. Here, we examine the role of endogenous density dependence and exogenous factors of climate and human activity in regulating the 37-year population dynamics of an important agricultural insect pest, the cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera), in North China from 1975 to 2011. Quantitative time-series analysis provided strong evidence explaining long-term population dynamics of the cotton bollworm and its driving factors. Rising temperature and declining rainfall exacerbated the effect of agricultural intensification on continuously weakening the negative density dependence in regulating the population dynamics of cotton bollworms. Consequently, ongoing climate change and agricultural intensification unleashed the tightly regulated pest population and triggered the regional outbreak of H. armigera in 1992. Although the negative density dependence can effectively regulate the population change rate to fluctuate around zero at stable equilibrium levels before and after outbreak in the 1992, the population equilibrium jumped to a higher density level with apparently larger amplitudes after the outbreak. The results highlight the possibility for exogenous factors to induce pest outbreaks and alter the population regulating mechanism of negative density dependence and, thus, the stable equilibrium of the pest population, often to a higher level, posing considerable risks to the provision of agro-ecosystem services and regional food security. Efficient and timely measures of pest management in the era of Anthropocene should target the strengthening and revival of weakening density dependence caused by climate change and human activities.
- 相关文献
作者其他论文 更多>>
-
The hidden indirect environmental effect undercuts the contribution of crop nitrogen fertilizer application to the net ecosystem economic benefit
作者：Yang, Quanfeng;Zheng, Hua;Gong, Huarui;Li, Jing;Qiao, Fei;Zhang, Kening;Ouyang, Fang;Ge, Feng;Ma, Junhua;Li, Jing;Men, Xingyuan;Ge, Feng;Lu, Zengbin;Yang, Fei;Zheng, Hua;Ouyang, Fang
关键词：Sustainable crop production; Crop excessive N fertilizer application; N-Crop-pest cascade pathway; Chemical pesticide; Net ecosystem economic benefit (NEEB); Cereal aphid
-
Cold storage alters the fat-trehalose trade-off, decreases the flight ability, and maintains the high survival rate and flight speed of Osmia excavata (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae)
作者：Song, Yingying;Cui, Hongying;Guo, Wenxiu;Lv, Suhong;Li, Lili;Yu, Yi;Men, Xingyuan;Liu, Li;Ye, Baohua;Ouyang, Fang
关键词：ecological service value; flight ability; Osmia; pollination efficiency; refrigeration; vitality
-
Cnidium monnieri (L.) Cusson Flower as a Supplementary Food Promoting the Development and Reproduction of Ladybeetles Harmonia axyridis (Pallas) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae)
作者：Su, Wenwen;Ouyang, Fang;Ge, Feng;Su, Wenwen;Ge, Feng;Li, Zhuo;Yuan, Yiyang;Ge, Feng;Yang, Quanfeng
关键词：coccinellidae; supplementary food feeding; floral resource; development; reproduction
-
The Supercooling Responses of the Solitary Bee Osmia excavata (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae) under the Biological Stress of Its Brood Parasite, Sapyga coma (Hymenoptera: Sapygidae)
作者：Yan, Zhuo;Gu, Shimin;Su, Jianwei;Ge, Feng;Ouyang, Fang;Yan, Zhuo;Gu, Shimin;Su, Jianwei;Ge, Feng;Wang, Lina;Reddy, Gadi V. P.;Men, Xingyuan;Xiao, Yunli
关键词：overwintering; supercooling; solitary bee; brood parasite
-
Wheat yield losses from pests and pathogens in China
作者：Zhang, Qingqing;Ge, Feng;Ouyang, Fang;Zhang, Qingqing;Ge, Feng;Men, Xingyuan;Ge, Feng;Hui, Cang;Hui, Cang
关键词：Wheat; Food security; Agricultural management strategies; Pests and pathogens; Yield loss
-
Incorporation of local and neighborhood trophic cascades highly determine ecosystem function along a nitrogen subsidy gradient
作者：Gu, Shimin;Ge, Feng;Gu, Shimin;Ouyang, Fang;Ge, Feng;Zalucki, Myron P.
关键词：Ecological subsidy; ecosystem function; land use intensification; pest control; trophic cascades
-
Intercropping flowering plants facilitate conservation, movement and biocontrol performance of predators in insecticide-free apple orchard
作者：Zhang, Xingrui;Ouyang, Fang;Su, Jianwei;Sun, Yucheng;Ge, Feng;Zhang, Xingrui;Sun, Yucheng;Ge, Feng;Li, Zhuo;Yuan, Yiyang;Ge, Feng;Sarkar, Shovon Chandra;Xiao, Yunli
关键词：Intercropping; Flowering plants; Apple orchards; Biological control; Predator
