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Optimization of China's maize and soy production can ensure feed sufficiency at lower nitrogen and carbon footprints

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Liu, Zitong 1 ; Ying, Hao 1 ; Chen, Mingyou 1 ; Bai, Jie 1 ; Xue, Yanfang 2 ; Yin, Yulong 1 ; Batchelor, William D. 3 ; Yang, Yi 4 ; Bai, Zhaohai 5 ; Du, Mingxi 6 ; Guo, Yixin 7 ; Zhang, Qingsong 1 ; Cui, Zhenling 1 ; Zhang, Fusuo 1 ; Dou, Zhengxia 9 ;

作者机构： 1.China Agr Univ, Natl Acad Agr Green Dev, Coll Resources & Environm Sci, Minist Educ,Key Lab Plant Soil Interact, Beijing, Peoples R China

2.Shandong Acad Agr Sci, Maize Res Inst, Jinan, Peoples R China

3.Auburn Univ, Biosyst Engn Dept, Auburn, AL 36849 USA

4.Chongqing Univ, Key Lab Three Gorges Reservoir Reg Ecoenvironm, Minist Educ, Chongqing, Peoples R China

5.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Agr Resources Res, Inst Genet & Dev Biol, Key Lab Agr Water Resources, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, Peoples R China

6.McGill Univ, Dept Geog, Montreal, PQ, Canada

7.Princeton Univ, Princeton Sch Publ & Int Affairs, Princeton, NJ USA

8.Peking Univ, Sch Phys, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Lab Climate & Ocean Atmosphere Studies, Beijing, Peoples R China

9.Univ Penn, New Bolton Ctr, Sch Vet Med, Dept Clin Studies, Kennett Sq, PA 19348 USA

期刊名称：NATURE FOOD

ISSN：

年卷期： 2021 年 2 卷 6 期

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： China purchases around 66% of the soy that is traded internationally. This strains the global food supply and contributes to greenhouse gas emissions. Here we show that optimizing the maize and soy production of China can improve its self-sufficiency and also alleviate adverse environmental effects. Using data from more than 1,800 counties in China, we estimate the area-weighted yield potential (Y-pot) and yield gaps, setting the attainable yield (Y-att) as the yield achieved by the top 10% of producers per county. We also map out county-by-county acreage allocation and calculate the attainable production capacity according to a set of sustainability criteria. Under optimized conditions, China would be able to produce all the maize and 45% of the soy needed by 2035-while reducing nitrogen fertilizer use by 26%, reactive nitrogen loss by 28% and greenhouse gas emissions by 19%-with the same acreage as 2017, our reference year. China's feed imports have global sustainability implications. This study uses crop simulations based on current and attainable farmers' yields to estimate the country's potential to meet its own demand for maize and soy, as well as associated benefits for GHG emissions and nutrient use efficiency.

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